Phased effects of China’s Targeted Poverty Alleviation: a dynamic assessment and regional heterogeneity analysis using Multi-period DID
发布日期：2026-05-08
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ABSTRACT:China’s Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) strategy is the cornerstone of the country’s poverty reduction efforts, lifting hundreds of millions of rural people out of poverty. However, existing research has seldom explored the dynamics of policy effects and the impact of phased implementation. This study, based on Amartya Sen’s ‘Capability Approach to Poverty’ and ‘Public Policy Diffusion Theory’, utilizes panel data from the 2010–2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and employs a Multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to identify the causal impacts and regional heterogeneity of the policy. The empirical results show that the TPA policy significantly reduced the provincial poverty incidence rate. Moreover, the policy demonstrates characteristics of dynamic persistence, meaning that its poverty reduction effects are cumulative and strengthen over time rather than diminishing. Importantly, the study reveals significant differences in policy effects during the ‘pilot-to-promotion’ diffusion process: early pilot regions, benefiting from the ‘first-mover advantage’, achieved better poverty reduction outcomes; while later promotion regions showed a similar poverty reduction trend, their effects were weaker. These findings provide crucial empirical evidence for the ‘post-poverty alleviation era’, indicating the necessity of transitioning to the governance of relative poverty and suggesting optimized, differentiated resource allocation strategies for future policy diffusion.
作者：Yuxiang Mu & Long Cheng
来源：Journal of Asian Public Policy ,01 May 2026
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